DTN Midday Livestock Comments          09/11 11:46

   Feedlot Managers Continue to Hold Out in Hopes of Better Prices

   Bids are currently being offered in Nebraska, but no sizeable trade has 
occurred yet.

ShayLe Stewart
DTN Livestock Analyst

GENERAL COMMENTS:

   The livestock complex is once again trading mixed, as the cattle contracts 
rally on the hope that this week's fed cash cattle market will trade higher, 
but meanwhile the lean hog contracts are trading lower. Bids are on the table 
in the cash market, but still no cattle have traded yet. December corn is down 
4 cents per bushel and December soybean meal is down $2.20. The Dow Jones 
Industrial Average is up 525.28 points and NASDAQ is up 309.63 points.

    

LIVE CATTLE:

   The tenacious spirit of feedlot managers in this week's fed cash cattle 
market has been enough to inspire traders to push the December live cattle 
contract above its 40-day moving average, and the spot October live cattle 
contract is currently trading just $0.09 below its 40-day moving average. 
October live cattle are up $1.65 at $219.47, December live cattle are up $2.32 
at $221.92 and February live cattle are up $2.27 at $223.42. Bids are on the 
table in the fed cash cattle market but still no trade has developed as feedlot 
managers are hoping that packer demand will increase as time passes by. 
Currently beings of $224 are noted in the South, and bids of $342 in Western 
Nebraska and bids of $350 in Eastern Nebraska. Trade could shake out at any 
time now as packers have yet to secure any inventory in this week's trade. Grab 
your popcorn folks, this week's trade could be good watching!

   Friday's WASDE report came as a grim finding for the beef and cattle markets 
of 2026. Beef production for 2026 is decreased by 90 million pounds as fed 
cattle marketings are light and so are cow slaughter speeds. Fed cash cattle 
prices for the remainder of 2026 and into 2027 are disappointing compared to 
August's estimates as fed cash cattle prices in the third quarter are now 
expected to average $230 (down $12.00), steers in the fourth quarter are 
expected to average $225 (down $20.00), steers in the first quarter of 2027 are 
expected to average $235 (down $10.00) and steers in the second quarter of 2027 
are expected to average $235 (down $15.00). Beef exports for 2026 are increased 
by two million pounds as exports into Asia markets have increased. But the 
report specially noted that, "With the expansion of quotas allowing for reduced 
tariffs on beef through November, imports are raised in 2026 on stronger 
expected shipments from South America, but the import forecast is unchanged for 
2027." Beef imports for 2026 increased by 73 million pounds.

   Boxed beef prices are mixed: choice down $2.41 ($375.96) and select up $1.61 
($353.67) with a movement of 69 loads (56.76 loads of choice, 4.26 loads of 
select, 2.62 loads of trim and 5.04 loads of ground beef).

FEEDER CATTLE:

   And upon seeing the eagerness of the live cattle complex, the feeder cattle 
contracts wasted no time trading higher either. It's been a refreshing week 
where not only have the feeder cattle contracts traded higher, but the 
countryside has seen an increase in demand as well which has reinvigorated the 
market's confidence. September feeders are up $3.40 at $335.97, October feeders 
are up $3.32 at $330.87 and November feeders re up $3.80 at $326.57.

LEAN HOGS :

   The lean hog complex is continuing with it's lower trend in Friday's noon 
hour as traders simply aren't pleased with the market's lagging support. And 
while yes, midday pork cutout values may be higher, it's too little of support 
too late to help. October lean hogs are down $1.07 at $82.07, December lean 
hogs are down $1.25 at $73.10 and February lean hogs are down $1.25 at $75.57. 
The projected lean hog index for 9/10/2026 is down $0.85 at $87.94, and the 
actual index for 9/9/2026 is down $0.57 at $88.22. Hog prices are not available 
on the Daily Direct Morning Hog Report because of confidentiality. However, we 
can see that only 463 head have traded and that the market's five-day rolling 
average now sits at $87.72. Pork cutouts total 140.62 loads with 126.62 loads 
of pork cuts and 14.00 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $0.30, $92.11.

   Friday's WASDE report was a mixed report for the pork and hog markets of 
2026. Pork production for 2026 was decreased by 105 million pounds as slaughter 
speeds have been light, and carcass weights have been lighter than expected as 
well. Quarterly price projects for 2026 and for the first two quarters of 2027 
were increased from last month's estimates. Hogs in the third quarter of 2026 
are expected to average $70 (up $1.00), hogs in the fourth quarter of 2026 are 
expected to average $59 (up $1.00), hogs in the first quarter of 2027 are 
expected to average $62 (up $1.00) and hogs in the second quarter of 2027 are 
expected to average $68 (up $1.00). Pork imports for 2026 fell by 10 million 
pounds, and pork exports for 2026 fell by 65 million pounds.

   ShayLe Stewart can be reached shayle.stewart@dtn.com




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